Betting on Football: it ain’t easy

Sunderland 0-0 Manchester United
The official away trip is sold out and Sunderland are only selling tickets to official members. The coach/ticket trip I see advertised online is £125. I ring my friend Neil, who is a member at Sunderland. Early in the conversation I remember he’s a gambler so as part of my attempt to induce him to help me get a ticket I ask him if he thinks there’s a good bet to be had on the match. He says he rarely bets on football.

“The over-rounds are poor, whenever I’ve looked into it.” This, he explains at some statistical length, is the level of value to the punter of a given market with respect to the odds laid.

Other than betting long on international tournaments when there’s more discrepancy in the prices on offer, or being party to the latest info concerning midweek injury crises at Turkish third division clubs, some gamblers have little time for the football markets.

Unlike racing, where the odds change continuously in response to movement, in football, where the first scorer/ correct score double-up dominates, there tends to be less of a fluid market. The hunt for that ‘value’ bet can seem less appealing to the seasoned gambler.

“If I were going to make a bet to increase my excitement I’d the bet on last goal scorer rather than the first,” he suggests when pushed. “To get value I’d try to find a 10 or 12/1 shot who was likely to be a penalty taker.”

A while later I receive a text. ‘Bent and Gyan to score last. We only have two pen takers, man united is trickier to call. also a saver on no goal scorer. This is a better bet than 0-0 because with no goal scorer you win if it’s 0-0 OR if the only goal is an own goal.’

I ring Graham Sharp, the bookie bloke from William Hill, and ask him about the over-rounds. “How long have you got?” he says. “You’ll be able to bet on football this weekend to a maximum of 106%. [Less than 100% is ideal]. I refute that that’s worse value than a horse race.”

As regards football betting he tells me he’s a win, lose or draw man. “I’m happy to be proved correct for a small reward. I’d make the point that bookmakers tend to lean towards offering the value part of their price in the team that’s not expected to win.”

The odds for the game are Sunderland 4/1, United 8/11, with the draw at 5/2.

“Sunderland to win is the price with the value in it. I like United to win at 8/11 and maybe Owen to score. Or Bent. After all, he’s an England international, he scores all Sunderland’s goals and he’s 7/1.”

He prices up United to win Bent scoring the first goal at 20/1.

Empty nets make good bets
What Nigel de Jong wears when not in footy kit

The match ticket falls through. On the day of the game I go to a Chester Road bookmakers and speak to a bookie called Rob. With United playing away, the football markets are quiet. Match days are different. “We get a lot of bets on hat tricks,” he tells me. “And unlikely scorelines. 8-0, 9-0…” The serious punters, he says, go in heavily on short odds chances: United or Chelsea to win at home against much weaker opposition.

I watch the match in the Gorse. It’s at half time when I get a text from Neil.

‘You know it’s a very unfashionable bet, no goal scorer. Not a lot of people think of it…’

No goal scorer was priced at 17/2 so Neil is £65 to the good for his saver bet, once you take off the twenty he blew on the scorers.

All credit to the guy – he predicted the score.

City Shine
City leap-frogged United into second following a rough ‘n’ tumble 2-1 victory over Newcastle at Eastlands on Sunday lunchtime. They laughed in the Sky commentary box when Adam Johnson was given the Man of the Match award, having only come off the bench in the 72nd minute and just a couple of moments later magicked up some psychedelic close control footwork to power the match winner.

Doesn’t that make him the ‘Man of the Match’?

Things were less peachy-creamy for Nigel de Jong, however, the midfield strongman having shunted his boot into the knee of Newcastle playmaker Hatem Ben Arfa with sufficient force that TV viewers were spared repeat showings of the clear breaking of his leg.

Coming after the now-infamous ‘kung fu’ challenge on Spain’s Xabi Alonso in the World Cup final – a tackle which has been described as the worst ever seen in the tournament, this poses a problem for the Dutchman as he comes to terms with a reputation, deserved or otherwise, as a dangerous randomer.

Just a week ago a friend, a City fan who won’t have a word said against the finer arts of the Mancini 4-3-3, was posting clips of de Jong on the internet. Look how many attacks he breaks up. Look at the interceptions. The anticipation. Every touch. You hardly notice him. There are several who have pointed to the Dutch enforcer’s quiet genius. All concerned will be hoping there aren’t any more serious accidents in the future. Otherwise the clips may take on the character of a video nasty.